Ward's Hierarchical Clustering Method: Clustering Criterion and Agglomerative Algorithm

The Ward error sum of squares hierarchical clustering method has been very widely used since its first description by Ward in a 1963 publication. It has also been generalized in various ways. However there are different interpretations in the literature and there are different implementations of the Ward agglomerative algorithm in commonly used software systems, including differing expressions of the agglomerative criterion. Our survey work and case studies will be useful for all those involved in developing software for data analysis using Ward's hierarchical clustering method.Comment: 20 pages, 21 citations, 4 figure

Waves on the surface of the Orion molecular cloud

Massive stars influence their parental molecular cloud, and it has long been suspected that the development of hydrodynamical instabilities can compress or fragment the cloud. Identifying such instabilities has proved difficult. It has been suggested that elongated structures (such as the `pillars of creation') and other shapes arise because of instabilities, but alternative explanations are available. One key signature of an instability is a wave-like structure in the gas, which has hitherto not been seen. Here we report the presence of `waves' at the surface of the Orion molecular cloud near where massive stars are forming. The waves seem to be a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability that arises during the expansion of the nebula as gas heated and ionized by massive stars is blown over pre-existing molecular gas.Comment: Preprint of publication in Natur

A Standardised Procedure for Evaluating Creative Systems: Computational Creativity Evaluation Based on What it is to be Creative

Computational creativity is a flourishing research area, with a variety of creative systems being produced and developed. Creativity evaluation has not kept pace with system development with an evident lack of systematic evaluation of the creativity of these systems in the literature. This is partially due to difficulties in defining what it means for a computer to be creative; indeed, there is no consensus on this for human creativity, let alone its computational equivalent. This paper proposes a Standardised Procedure for Evaluating Creative Systems (SPECS). SPECS is a three-step process: stating what it means for a particular computational system to be creative, deriving and performing tests based on these statements. To assist this process, the paper offers a collection of key components of creativity, identified empirically from discussions of human and computational creativity. Using this approach, the SPECS methodology is demonstrated through a comparative case study evaluating computational creativity systems that improvise music

A cross-sectional study of vascular risk factors in a rural South African population : data from the Southern African Stroke Prevention Initiative (SASPI)

Background: Rural sub-Saharan Africa is at an early stage of economic and health transition. It is predicted that the 21st century will see a serious added economic burden from non-communicable disease including vascular disease in low-income countries as they progress through the transition. The stage of vascular disease in a population is thought to result from the prevalence of vascular risk factors. Already hypertension and stroke are common in adults in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a multidisciplinary approach we aimed to assess the prevalence of several vascular risk factors in Agincourt, a rural demographic surveillance site in South Africa. Methods: We performed a cross sectional random sample survey of adults aged over 35 in Agincourt (population ≈ 70 000). Participants were visited at home by a trained nurse who administered a questionnaire, carried out clinical measurements and took a blood sample. From this we assessed participants' history of vascular risk, blood pressure using an OMRON 705 CP monitor, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and total and HDL cholesterol. Results: 402 people (24% men) participated. There was a high prevalence of smoking in men, but the number of cigarettes smoked was small. There was a striking difference in mean BMI between men and women (22.8 kg/m2 versus 27.2 kg/m2), but levels of blood pressure were very similar. 43% of participants had a blood pressure greater than 140/90 or were on anti-hypertensive treatment and 37% of participants identified with measured high blood pressure were on pharmacological treatment. 12% of participants had an ABI of < 0.9, sugesting the presence of sub-clinical atheroma. 25.6% of participants had a total cholesterol level > 5 mmol/l. Conclusion: We found a high prevalence of hypertension, obesity in women, and a suggestion of subclinical atheroma despite relatively favourable cholesterol levels in a rural South African population. South Africa is facing the challenge of an emerging epidemic of vascular disease. Research to establish the social determinates of these risk factors and interventions to reduce both individual and population risk are required

Globally Continuous and Non-Markovian Crowd Activity Analysis from Videos

Automatically recognizing activities in video is a classic problem in vision and helps to understand behaviors, describe scenes and detect anomalies. We propose an unsupervised method for such purposes. Given video data, we discover recurring activity patterns that appear, peak, wane and disappear over time. By using non-parametric Bayesian methods, we learn coupled spatial and temporal patterns with minimum prior knowledge. To model the temporal changes of patterns, previous works compute Markovian progressions or locally continuous motifs whereas we model time in a globally continuous and non-Markovian way. Visually, the patterns depict flows of major activities. Temporally, each pattern has its own unique appearance-disappearance cycles. To compute compact pattern representations, we also propose a hybrid sampling method. By combining these patterns with detailed environment information, we interpret the semantics of activities and report anomalies. Also, our method fits data better and detects anomalies that were difficult to detect previously

Standard setting: Comparison of two methods

BACKGROUND: The outcome of assessments is determined by the standard-setting method used. There is a wide range of standard – setting methods and the two used most extensively in undergraduate medical education in the UK are the norm-reference and the criterion-reference methods. The aims of the study were to compare these two standard-setting methods for a multiple-choice question examination and to estimate the test-retest and inter-rater reliability of the modified Angoff method. METHODS: The norm – reference method of standard -setting (mean minus 1 SD) was applied to the 'raw' scores of 78 4th-year medical students on a multiple-choice examination (MCQ). Two panels of raters also set the standard using the modified Angoff method for the same multiple-choice question paper on two occasions (6 months apart). We compared the pass/fail rates derived from the norm reference and the Angoff methods and also assessed the test-retest and inter-rater reliability of the modified Angoff method. RESULTS: The pass rate with the norm-reference method was 85% (66/78) and that by the Angoff method was 100% (78 out of 78). The percentage agreement between Angoff method and norm-reference was 78% (95% CI 69% – 87%). The modified Angoff method had an inter-rater reliability of 0.81 – 0.82 and a test-retest reliability of 0.59–0.74. CONCLUSION: There were significant differences in the outcomes of these two standard-setting methods, as shown by the difference in the proportion of candidates that passed and failed the assessment. The modified Angoff method was found to have good inter-rater reliability and moderate test-retest reliability

Changes in JC virus-specific T cell responses during natalizumab treatment and in natalizumab-associated progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) induced by JC virus (JCV) is a risk for natalizumab-treated multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Here we characterize the JCV-specific T cell responses in healthy donors and natalizumab-treated MS patients to reveal functional differences that may account for the development of natalizumab-associated PML. CD4 and CD8 T cell responses specific for all JCV proteins were readily identified in MS patients and healthy volunteers. The magnitude and quality of responses to JCV and cytomegalovirus (CMV) did not change from baseline through several months of natalizumab therapy. However, the frequency of T cells producing IL-10 upon mitogenic stimulation transiently increased after the first dose. In addition, MS patients with natalizumab-associated PML were distinguished from all other subjects in that they either had no detectable JCV-specific T cell response or had JCV-specific CD4 T cell responses uniquely dominated by IL-10 production. Additionally, IL-10 levels were higher in the CSF of individuals with recently diagnosed PML. Thus, natalizumab-treated MS patients with PML have absent or aberrant JCV-specific T cell responses compared with non-PML patients, and changes in T cell-mediated control of JCV replication may be a risk factor for developing PML. Our data suggest further approaches to improved monitoring, treatment and prevention of PML in natalizumab-treated patients